For the first time since 1984, the median price of a home sold in Jackson County went down.
The median price backtracked 2 percent in August over the same month last year, spurred by declines on both sides of Medford. High inventories, fewer first-time buyers and a wait-and-see attitude on the part of newcomers to the market pulled the plug on the heretofore relentless price increases, representatives in the housing industry say.
The year-over-year median price for August dropped $5,000, from $274,900 to $269,900. That figure was backed up by the monthly July-to-August trend that saw the median price dip 4 percent.
"People are waiting around because there are so many houses to choose from," says Sandie Malot of Malot Real Estate in Central Point. "It's like a candy store."
East Medford was the epicenter of the drop, with the median price on 58 sales plunging 10 percent, from $295,950 to $267,000, in August 2005. According to figures compiled by Medford appraiser Roy Wright, west Medford's August median price on 42 sales slipped 2 percent, from $229,900 to $225,750.
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The countywide inventory of houses available through the Southern Oregon Multiple Listing Service is up 120 percent to 1,971 single-family residences over a year ago. In west Medford the number has climbed 176 percent.
Kathy Tinsley of Coldwell Banker Pro West Real Estate in Medford says the reluctance of sellers to follow market conditions has contributed to the glut of housing stock.
"Some people didn't come down right away in their prices," Tinsley says. "I have a listing with two houses on one lot that was at $399,000 that would've been gone last year and it has dropped to $379,000 now."
On the lower end of the scale, houses in the $200,000 range require more than cash down and monthly mortgage payments.
"It's a really good time to be a handyman and buy fixer-uppers," Tinsley says. "There is more to pick and bargain for, as long as sellers come down, and all of the houses out there has to bring sellers' prices down."
Outside of Medford, however, much of the rest of the county's urban areas saw increased median prices in August. Ashland's median sales mark rose 11 percent, or $46,600, to $484,000 on 33 sales. Through the first eight months of the year, Ashland's real estate activity is lagging 29 percent behind 2005. Only east Medford has seen a smaller decline in its sales pace at 25.5 percent.
Ashland's median price underscores the health of top-end sales where transactions aren't as dependent on interest rates and contingencies. But at median and below levels, not every seller is motivated.
"There are sellers who are optimistic that prices are going to be back up," Russell says. "If they don't need to sell, they're holding on to their properties and holding to their prices. The ones that need to buy are going to get in, but those who are investing and looking for a return are not going to buy."
Eagle Point, which frequently sees wide swings in its median sales price, remained virtually flat with the median price point dropping $1,250, less than 1 percent, to $320,000 on 21 sales. At the same time, the days on market for homes selling in Eagle Point ballooned to 97, more than double the 43 days it took to sell a house in August 2005.
Central Point saw a 5 percent gain in its median sales price, from $251,500 to $263,000, while the Phoenix-Talent region saw a nearly 6 percent rise in its median sales price, from $259,900 to $274,900, on 85 sales. Both Central Point and the Phoenix-Talent markets saw a more than 50 percent drop in sales activity from the previous year.
The median price for rural home sales rose 16.2 percent to $395,000 on 297 deals, while the median for new houses was $355,000 on 280 transactions. The length of time for new construction on the market has stretched from 77 days to 177.
Ten-year appreciation rate cools off locally
There is little doubt the Jackson County housing market has cooled over the past two years, but it wasn't long ago that it was the strongest in the Northwest.
At the end of March 2005, Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight numbers showed Medford-Ashland with a 10-year appreciation of 126.2 percent, tops in the Northwest with Seattle-Bellevue-Everett a distant second (94.1 percent) and Bend third (93 percent).
Recently released federal housing numbers now put Bend solidly in the No. 1 slot (36.7 percent) for appreciation over the 12-month period ending June 30, ahead of Boise-Nampa, Idaho (28.8 percent), Lakeland, Fla. (27.1 percent), and Flagstaff, Ariz. (26.7 percent). Medford ranks No. 57 at 15.7 percent, with second-quarter appreciation of 2.1 percent. The 10-year appreciation rate has cooled off to 98.3 percent.
Kathy Tinsley of Coldwell Banker Pro West Real Estate contends infrastructure improvements in and around the freeway are a presage that the housing market will take off in the not-so-distant future.
"In another three to five years there's going to be a big boom," she says. "We're replacing bridges, motels are going up and we're getting bigger stores going in. I'd want to buy now, especially commercial property, when things are down and then sit on it for a while."

