Predicting the future from the past can be iffy, but when it comes to preparing for the next influenza pandemic, looking at the past adds a sense of urgency to the need to plan ahead.

About 80 people gathered at Medford's Red Lion Hotel Monday to learn more about the influenza virus and share ideas about how to prepare for a disease outbreak that could fill hospitals to overflowing and disrupt the flow of everyday life.

The last serious flu outbreak (in 1918) was particularly deadly because humans had little or no immunity to the new strain of the virus that emerged. Planning for the next pandemic is difficult because no one knows how widely the virus will spread or how strong it will be, said Dr. Jim Shames, medical officer for Jackson and Josephine counties.

Shames said that if a new influenza virus struck on a scale of the 1918 pandemic, as many as 3,700 to 8,700 people could fall ill with bacterial pneumonia — in Southern Oregon alone.

"When you look back at the 1918 flu, you realize it would be very foolish not to do lots of planning," Shames said.

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Shames said the 1918 influenza infected between 15 and 35 percent of the population, and may have killed as many as 50 million people worldwide, making it the worst disease event in human history (including the plagues). In the United States alone, 750,000 people died, many of them between the ages of 20 and 40, in the prime of life.

Shames noted that human populations are much larger now, and people are far more mobile, two factors that would make a new highly contagious flu spread rapidly. People who have the flu can be contagious before they show symptoms, so it's only prudent to make contingency plans for closing schools and other public places where the virus might spread more quickly.

Businesses, hospitals and health care providers, as well as government organizations and families, need to think about how their activities might be affected by a highly contagious flu virus and make appropriate plans, said Beth DePew, Jackson County's director of emergency health care preparedness.

DePew said hospitals are working on plans that will assure the most appropriate use of limited resources such as vaccines, which would be given first to health care workers.

"If hospitals are full, alternative care sites may have to be opened," she said, and hospitals could run out of supplies.

"We don't realize that hospitals have limited beds and limited resources," DePew said.

Individuals and families can help themselves by stockpiling a two-week supply of water and food as well as an extra supply of all prescription medicines and common over-the-counter drugs. Elementary hygiene practices such as frequent hand washing and covering all coughs could reduce the spread of the flu virus.

Any flu pandemic would likely cause a measure of social disruption, and businesses will have to plan for how they might cope with heavy absenteeism, interruptions in deliveries of supplies and travel restrictions.

Planning can be difficult, he said, because "one solution leads to problems of its own." Closing schools, for example, could reduce the spread of influenza among children, but working parents would suddenly have to make new childcare arrangements. Some could conceivably have to leave their jobs to take care of family members, so employers may want to consider new employee leave policies for influenza-related absences.

A number of resources are available online for planning a response to an influenza pandemic, including www.pandemicflu.gov.

Reach reporter Bill Kettler at 776-4492 or e-mail:bkettler@mailtribune.com