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Eagle Point residents can expect more housing developments like this one near the Eagle Point Golf Course if new projections of 124 percent growth by 2040 prove correct. (Mail Tribune / Bob Pennell)

Fueled by strong growth in metropolitan areas, Jackson County's population could jump 53 percent by 2040, a preliminary report reveals.

Some of highest gains will be seen in Medford at 87 percent, Eagle Point at 124 percent and Central Point at 100 percent, according to ECONorthwest, a Eugene consulting firm hired by the county to do projections as part of its comprehensive plan.

The numbers, also calculated for 2026, will help forecast employment, housing and transportation needs and are used in determining funding requirements for local governments, said Melissa Anderson, planner with Jackson County.

Anderson said all jurisdictions within the county rely on the projections.

"If they want to do an urban-growth boundary amendment they have to use these population projections," said Anderson.

ECONorthwest used population estimates from Portland State University's Population Research Center, a forecast from the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis and input from local jurisdictions to create the projections.

Jacksonville and Medford dispute the numbers, however.

City offic ials in Jacksonville, which is projected to grow 76 percent, from 2,490 to 4,383, by 2040, will present their own projections to the county, said Paul Wyntergreen, city administrator. He declined to say what the City Council's number might be.

But the Planning Commission believes the city's population in 20 years, which ECONorthwest puts at 4,161, should be closer to 3,397.

Local residents have been vocal and varied in their opinions about growth during recent discussions over expanding Jacksonville's urban-growth boundary. Wyntergreen said there are those who want no growth, those who want slow growth, and those who are ready for more growth, he said.

"You can't control the rate of growth," he said. Nearly all the property within Jacksonville's urban-growth boundary has been annexed, he said.

Wyntergreen said the residents are aware of the importance of the figures.

"It does sort of dictate what your future supply of land will be for growth," he said.

Anderson said jurisdictions have been weighing in on the projections for the past six months.

Rob Scott, Medford's planning director, questions the figures for his city.

Medford is predicted to jump from 70,855 in 2005 to 107,821 in 2026 and 132,386 in 2040.

"There's some concern about accuracy," said Scott. He said the Medford City Council will meet this week to make recommendations about Medford's numbers. "They seem a little low."

Scott said he sees the numbers not so much as a forecast but an allocation. For example, Medford is predicted to have 42 percent of the county's total population of 256,719 in 2026.

"Once you're given an allocation, that's a number you can use as a plug-in when you start doing your planning," he said.

Anderson said the last set of coordinated population forecasts was done eight years ago. She said once finalized, this year's forecasts will be used to determine demand for land for everything from houses and offices to retail stores and warehouses. Market factors and public policy will determine the type and density of development, she said.

Michael Cavallaro, director of the Rogue Valley Council of Governments, said the numbers line up with regional problem solving, the process in which cities are planning their future growth areas.

"The results are now proportionate to what RPS is planning at this time," he said.

Reach reporter Meg Landers at 776-4481 or e-mail mlanders@mailtribune.com.