February 11, 2006
Valleys housing inventories settle back to norm
By GREG STILES
Mail Tribune
Rising inventories of homes on the market are beginning to stack up against historic norms in Jackson County.
A total of 1,177 single-family residential units were listed for sale countywide as of Friday, 90 percent more than a year go.
"I think were getting to a point of equilibrium," said Medford appraiser Roy Wright, who tracks local residential sales. "I think were getting back to the
norm."
While the inventory is climbing, the number of sales plunged 38.5 percent to 139 sales in January. There were only two months with fewer than 200 sales in 2005 and only one with fewer than 200 in
2004.
Snail-paced sales, however, failed to slow the rise in sale prices, which hit a median of $288,900, up 26 percent from January 2005. Central Point led the way with a 27-percent median gain to
$285,500.
There are 1,023 real estate agents in the Rogue Valley, according to Southern Oregon Multiple Listing Service, and 28 more poised to join their ranks after a March 6 orientation.
Those agents are looking for ways to dispose of that growing inventory.
"Theres a lot more competition in the market," said John L. Scott agent Ron Galbreath.
But with sellers holding out for top dollar, its going to take something besides the ongoing low interest rates to kick-start the market. That might have to wait until the spring and summer
buying season kicks in.
Galbreath said lending restrictions have made it tougher for first-time buyers with questionable credit to obtain mortgages.
"A year ago this time, kids could come in with zero down, and even with B- or C-grade credit, could still close on a conventional loan in 20 to 30 days," Galbreath said.
"Whats missing are easy-to get-into, no-down-payment loans where there are high credit risks."
Houses priced below $400,000 are still moving relatively quickly, he said. After that, buyers are in a position to ferret out the best values.
"Appraisals are coming in high and that tells us the market is dropping," Wright said. "Prices may not be below where they were last year, but in some cases they might be below
where they were three, four or five months ago."
Bargains were still hard to find in east Medford where activity fell 21.3 percent, while prices climbed 18 percent to a median $318,950.
West Medford deals dwindled by 50 percent, while prices edged up 7 percent to $230,000. Eagle Point transactions fell off 31.2 percent as the median crept up to $332,400.
Ashland sales tumbled 37 percent even as the median sale prices climbed 9 percent to $420,000. Phoenix-Talent activity was at a near standstill with only three reported sales at a median
price of $300,000.
Median sales for both rural ($395,000) and new homes ($319,900) grew 9.7 percent. Activity slowed in the unincorporated local areas by 8.1 percent, while new home transactions declined 22
percent.
Reach reporter Greg Stiles at 776-4463 or e-mail
business@mailtribune.com.