|
When's that hard rain gonna fall?
The Rogue River near Savage Rapids Dam captures the brilliance of fall color in Southern Oregon. Cool fall days are expected to continue through the week, with no significant rain to improve low precipitation levels until Sunday, when a storm is expected to call. Despite forecasts of normal moisture this year, local experts are worried after October's meager .19 inch By MEG LANDERS It's been a year since Southern Oregon had really good rain. "Last year we had a wet October," says Roger Gerig of the National Weather Service in Medford. "That was the last good rain we had." Only .19 inches of rain fell in October 2001, making it the 12th consecutive month of below-average precipitation for Medford. "Normal for October is 1.49. So we were way below normal," Gerig says. "It wouldn't hurt so much if it was just a little below, but it's way below." The three hours of Monday's early-morning light rain only brought seven-hundredths of an inch, he says. A storm system on the horizon for Sunday could be significant, Gerig says, but one storm won't be enough to bring precipitation levels back to normal. The 30-day forecast predicts normal temperatures but below-average precipitation in the valley. The three-month outlook is also a little dry, he says. "If you don't get significant snow before the end of the year it just doesn't seem to last," he says. "We need some really big storms if we want to catch up." John Brazier, hydrologist with the Rogue River National Forest, says he's encouraged by forecasts that weather patterns are expected to improve in the coming months. "Hopefully, the climatologists' predictions for a normal winter are right," he says. Mike Evenson, district fish biologist with the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife, is worried about the valley's low stream flows. Fall chinook salmon are spawning right now, he says, but the bigger concern is summer steelhead and coho, the latter already are listed as threatened. "They use smaller tributaries to spawn in," says Evenson. There's still time for fall rains to improve stream flows, he says, since coho spawning peaks around the end of November and early December. "We're right at the beginning of the rainy season," he says. "It's not really a reason to panic. Yet." See the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Web site at: www.wrh.noaa.gov/medford. Reach reporter Meg Landers at 776-4481 or e-mail mlanders@mailtribune.com. |
