Drought might hit in June

County officials give commissioners the bad news

By Dani Dodge

Jackson County’s watermaster expects the county to declare a drought emergency in June or July.

"Our motto: It’s time to prepare, but not necessarily time to declare," said Larry Menteer, Jackson County’s watermaster. "Conditions are that our storage is low. Our snowpack is extremely low and coming off the mountains early.

"We’re looking at drought-like conditions basically like in 1977."

Drought severity has many factors

Many factors play into how bad a drought can get.

It depends on rainfall, snowpack, water in reservoirs and the saturation from the previous year. On April 1, 1977, the snowpack in the Rogue and Umpqua basins was 48 percent of average for the date. The preceding year had been dry, and those arid conditions continued through 1981.

It was so dry in 1977 that Ashland began rationing water in February when the Reeder Reservoir had reached 80 percent of capacity. Restaurants in Ashland and Medford stopped serving water except on request. Medford water officials discussed volunteer conservation measures, but no mandatory rules were imposed.

The drought of 1992 followed eight straight dry, warm years. On April 1, 1992, snowpack was only 23 percent of normal.

This year, snowpack at the end of March was 35 percent. Last year was a wet year.

According to the National Weather Service, the driest year on record in Medford was 1993-94, when rainfall was 8.87 inches. The weather year is calculated from Sept. 1 through Aug. 31. The average Medford rainfall is 18.86 inches. Through March 31, 1994, only 7.39 inches had fallen.

This year, so far, 7.54 inches of rain has fallen in Medford.

The other driest years, in order of parchedness, are:

1954-1955 — total 8.89 inches. Through March: 7.59 inches;

1976-1977 — total: 9.13 inches. Through March: 4.83 inches;

1923-1924 — total: 10.58 inches. Through March: 8.87 inches;

1933-1934 — total: 11.04 inches. Through March: 8.07 inches.

1925-1926 — total: 11.35 inches. Through March: 9.26 inches.

1991-1992 — total 11.38 inches. Through March : 5.78 inches.

People dependent on wells and small tributaries will be hit the hardest by the lack of water, said Bruce Sund, assistant regional manager for the southwest region of the Oregon Water Resource Department and Josephine County’s watermaster.

Some people who use wells may have to have water brought in, he said.

Sund and Menteer addressed the Jackson County Board of Commissioners on Wednesday. The two painted a bleak picture of water prospects for Jackson County this summer. Problems in Josephine County are even worse. Klamath County has already declared a drought emergency.

"Water resources are scarce — this is the worst we’ve seen on record since 1977," Sund said.

They predicted lawns will go brown in Ashland as that city works to protect its limited resource behind Reeder Reservoir. They said water quality will decrease as the Rogue River is drawn down to low levels. Snowpack is at only 35 percent of normal.

They note that the river’s tributaries are currently carrying only a third of their usual amount of water.

"The tributaries that don’t have storage attached to them are in trouble," Sund said.

The county’s emergency management office is gearing up to deal with the problems associated with drought, said emergency management coordinator Sandy Eccker.

Eccker said both the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the Small Business Administration will provide loans if a drought is declared. She said her office will coordinate the efforts. Most likely to be affected will be farmers, ranchers and businesses based on outdoor recreation.

"The (federal) programs aren’t a silver bullet," Eccker said. "But they will help."

Sund said one area being carefully monitored is in the hills outside Ashland.

"This year we are noticing ground water levels 20 to 30 percent less than last year — they are lower now than where they ended last year," he said. "It’s very possible they will have to haul water."

Sund said, though, that by conserving now, those people and others on wells may be able to stretch their resource.

He gave the opposite advice for farmers near small tributaries. Sund said they should use the water now coming off the mountains to irrigate their land.

"If they have a water source right off of natural stream flow, like some irrigation districts, they may want to put water on their land now to get the soil water content back up again," Sund said. "They may want to start irrigating early this year."

Sund said although they may be asked to conserve, Medford residents shouldn’t have severe problems this summer. He noted that the Medford Water Commission had the foresight to draw its water from a variety of sources. Another year like this though, and no one will be immune.

"Most municipalities are OK this year," Sund said. "Springs are still producing fairly good water. However they will need to practice conservation.

"If we have a repeat winter like this one we are in real trouble next year."

Reach reporter Dani Dodge at 776-4471, or e-mail ddodge@mailtribune.com 

 

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